Stablecoin yield vs a GIC, HISA or TFSA

Try a scenario:

Your money

Amount

For how long

The stablecoin

Stablecoin yield

The rate you were offered; an input, not a quote.

Chance per year of a loss event

Platform failure, hack, freeze or depeg. Nobody can measure this precisely; try several values.

Share lost if it happens

The insured options

GIC rate

Default: the Bank of Canada's posted 1-year rate at chartered banks, 2.45% (2026-10-28). Better rates exist; enter yours.

High-interest savings rate

Enter your account's rate. The posted rate on non-chequable savings at chartered banks is 0.01% (2026-10-28).

Your marginal tax rate

Hold the GIC or savings in a TFSA (no tax on the interest; the 2026 TFSA limit is $7,000. Stablecoins cannot be held directly in a TFSA.)

$10,000 for 1 year, after tax

The stablecoin comes out ahead by $2 on an expected basis

If nothing goes wrong the stablecoin ends at $10,350; allowing for a 2.0% yearly chance of losing 50%, its expected value is $10,247. The GIC ends at $10,245 tax-free in a TFSA, with no exchange-rate risk.

Stablecoin, nothing goes wrong

$10,350

Stablecoin, expected after loss risk

$10,247

GIC in a TFSA

$10,245

Savings account in a TFSA

$10,200

Chance of at least one loss event

2.0%

USD/CAD swing over 1 yr (10th–90th percentile)

−4.9% to +6.2%

A US-dollar stablecoin is a US-dollar position

USDC and most stablecoins track the US dollar, so in Canadian dollars their value moves with the exchange rate. Over every 1-year window since 2017 (3,223 start dates, Bank of Canada daily rates), holding US dollars changed in CAD terms by between −14.5% and +12.0%; the middle 80% of outcomes ran from −4.9% to +6.2%. Applied to the expected stablecoin value, that is roughly $9,748 to $10,878.

USD/CADHover or tap the chart to read values.

What is driving this result

Interest from a GIC or savings account outside a TFSA is fully taxed as income each year; at 30% your 2.45% GIC keeps 1.72%. Inside a TFSA it keeps all of it.
Stablecoin yield is generally income too, and the stablecoin itself cannot go in a TFSA, so it is taxed here at 30%.
CDIC insures eligible deposits at member institutions, including GICs and other term deposits, up to $100,000 per insured category; crypto, including stablecoins, is not covered.
The loss model is deliberately simple: a yearly chance of losing a share of the balance. Real failures cluster (2022 saw several lenders fail within months), so a low number for one year can understate the risk.

What would make it a tie?

Each line changes one assumption and holds the others fixed.

Yearly loss chance: The stablecoin's edge disappears at about 2.0% a year (losing 50% each time). You assumed 2.0%.
Stablecoin yield: It needs about 4.98% to match the GIC on an expected basis. You assumed 5.00%.

Expected stablecoin advantage over the GIC after 1 year, by yield and yearly loss chance (losing 50% each time). Green favours the stablecoin.
Yearly loss chance ↓ / Stablecoin yield →	3%	4%	5%	6%	8%	10%	12%
0%	−$35	+$35	+$105	+$175	+$315	+$455	+$595
1%	−$86	−$16	+$53	+$123	+$262	+$402	+$541
2%	−$137	−$68	+$2	+$71	+$209	+$348	+$487
5%	−$290	−$222	−$154	−$86	+$51	+$188	+$324
10%	−$546	−$479	−$413	−$346	−$213	−$80	+$53

Estimates from your inputs, calculated in your browser. Education, not financial or tax advice, and not advice from the site showing this calculator.