How to use it
- Enter the total portfolio value in CAD.
- Add each holding with its weight as a percentage.
- Enter a bear, base and bull return for each holding over the same period.
- Check that the weights add up to 100% (the calculator rescales them if they do not).
- Compare the three portfolio results, paying most attention to the bear case.
What the calculator does
Each portfolio scenario return is the weighted average of the holdings' returns in that scenario. Weights are rescaled to add up to 100% if they do not, and negative weights count as zero, so short positions are not modelled. The output is three portfolio returns and their CAD values.
Every return is your input. The calculator does not supply forecasts, historical returns or probabilities, and its scenarios are not predictions. Their purpose is to make your assumptions visible and consistent.
Worked example
Illustrative inputs: a $20,000 portfolio with 40% in a USD stablecoin, 40% in token A and 20% in token B, with scenario returns chosen only to show the arithmetic.
The 20% weight in token B contributes −17 percentage points of the −41% bear case, almost as much as token A at twice the weight. Small, volatile positions can dominate the downside.
The same holding drives the upside: token B supplies 40 of the 73.6 points in the bull case, against 32 from token A and 1.6 from the stablecoin. In the base case, almost all of the +5.2% comes from token A (4.0 points) and the stablecoin (1.2 points). Looking at contributions rather than weights shows which assumptions the result really depends on.
| Holding | Weight | CAD | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD stablecoin | 40% | $8,000 | 0% | +3% | +4% |
| Token A | 40% | $8,000 | −60% | +10% | +80% |
| Token B | 20% | $4,000 | −85% | 0% | +200% |
| Portfolio return | 100% | $20,000 | −41.0% | +5.2% | +73.6% |
| Portfolio value | $11,800 | $21,040 | $34,720 |
Scenarios assume everything moves together
The model applies one scenario to every holding at once: all bear or all bull. That is a sensible stress test for crypto, where many assets can fall together in a broad sell-off, but it is not the only possibility, and mixed outcomes are not modelled.
It also ignores the path. A portfolio that falls 41% needs a gain of about 69% to get back to where it started, and holding on through that drop is harder than the arithmetic suggests. For worked what-if stories, see scenarios.
What the result does not capture
The calculator has no rebalancing, fees, taxes, yield, probabilities or relationships between holdings beyond the shared scenario. In a real bear market, selling small tokens can push their prices lower still, so the exit value may be worse than the scenario return.
Some losses have nothing to do with price. A platform failure, a lost key or a contract exploit can wipe out a holding in any scenario; see custody risk and wallet security.
Canadian context
The Canadian Securities Administrators warn that crypto assets can be very volatile and risky and that you could lose some or all of your money. If you hold assets on a platform, check its registration with the CSA's national registration search before relying on it.
Rebalancing between holdings means trading one crypto-asset for another, which CRA treats as a disposition. Selling at a loss and buying back within 30 days can trigger the superficial loss rule, and the ACB calculator keeps each holding's average cost on track.